The curse of Apollo
The legend of Cassandra says that after she resisted Apollo’s efforts to seduce her, he cursed her to give accurate prophesies that no one believed. Geoscientists often feel the same, as their clear warnings about obvious hazards are ignored. Like Cassandra, who warned her people about the coming destruction of Troy, geoscientists are often cursed to have their warnings ignored. Some of these warnings are of immediate danger. Others are of long-term risks, like climate change. What is clear is that ignoring long-term threats increases the chances of short-term disasters.
In December, just before the onset of the rainy season, the huge Thomas fire cleared the vegetation on the hillslopes above Montecito, California. To geologists, the dangers caused by the intersection of bare slopes and heavy rains are well understood; we teach it in our elementary courses. The United States Geological Survey therefore issued mandatory and voluntary evacuation orders for the entire region. On January 8, torrential rains fell; the deluge triggered a massive flow of mud and debris that destroyed more than one-hundred-and-twenty homes and causing at least twenty deaths. Unfortunately, many who had previously evacuated due to the fires were hesitant to do so again, especially since the phrase “voluntary” conveys less of a sense of immediate threat. Like my geologist colleagues, the destruction and the loss of life saddened me. I am sure that many of them also thought, “I knew something like this would happen. And I warned everyone about it.”
But the geologist in me also thinks, “why would you build your house there?” The set-up is ideal for this kind of disaster happening again and again. Just twelves miles south along the coast, at La Conchita, a 2005 landslide triggered by heavy rains killed ten people. As John McPhee discussed in his The Control of Nature, debris flows are inevitable for those who live in the fire plagued zone between the tectonically active mountains and the ocean.
Californians are not alone in living with known risks. Coastal geologists have long warned against building on barrier islands because they are at elevated risk from hurricanes. This threat is increasing because of rising sea-levels. Nevertheless, development has covered many Gulf and Atlantic coast barrier islands with structures that can be readily destroyed in a hurricane. Sandy devastated New Jersey’s barrier islands, demolishing buildings and roads and causing extensive beach erosion and damage to wetlands. Geologists know that barrier islands move to adjust to changing sea-levels. Buildings on them cannot. Again, “why would you build your house there?”
A 2017 report from the NYU Furman Center indicates that 30 million Americans live in floodplains. When Hurricane Harvey hit Houston in August, much of that low-lying city flooded. Once again, not a surprise to the geologists and engineers of the local flood control district who, as long ago as 1996, studied the area and warned city officials of the risks of massive flooding. In the decades since, uncontrolled development has continued in the flood-prone area and increased the chance of floods by reducing the ability of the ground to absorb water. Climate change will only increase the number of severe rains. I would not build my house there.
Of course, not everyone has a choice about living in hazardous settings. For economic or social reasons, especially in the developing world, people will continue to live in floodplains, along coasts or cluster around the base of active volcanoes. More than 130,000 people live in the danger zone around Mayon Volcano in the Philippines, one of the most active volcanoes in the world. Currently erupting, more than 40,000 people have been evacuated. As they do in the Philippines, probably the best that geoscientists can do in these situations is to work with local governments to identify areas of unusual risk and to improve methods of predicting imminent danger.
Geoscientists, along with the overwhelming majority of their scientific colleagues, have been warning for decades about the threats posed by global climate change. A 2017 international survey by the Global Challenges Foundation suggested that 8 out of 10 people now consider it a “global catastrophic risk.” Perhaps we are lifting the curse of Apollo.
